While the above chart shows they’re not completely correlated, you can see that the larger moves in USDMXN spike along with the VIX, and then slowly bleed down as volatility dissipates. This is in contrast to other currency pairs which might trend for longer based on medium-term macroeconomic fundamentals. It could arguably be called a…Read More
With the post-Covid price shocks, we may be starting to see that secular disinflation has started to turn and entering at least a cyclical inflationary period and maybe a secular one. One of the more prominent macro analysts to change their view, Russel Napier, thinks that the result of inflation with a larger debt load…Read More
The Henley Global Citizens Report recently published high networth capital flight for 2022. Look at the list people are leaving the authoritarian states of Russia and China. Adjusting for population, Hong Kong is a stand out largely due to its harsh Covid policies and the recent implementation of its oppressive securities law. Country Per Capita…Read More
The financial coach Dave Ramsey has helped numerous individuals improve their finances and get out of debt. However, in a recent rant, Dave Ramsey said that housing is not going to go down because of “supply and demand”, showing that even individuals well versed in finance can miss the macroeconomic environment and say things that…Read More
In response to the pandemic in 2020, central banks around the world added large amounts of liquidity to the financial system in an attempt to soften the economic fall out of lockdowns and a slower economy. Additional credit at a time when the supply of goods and services was constrained led to high inflation and…Read More
For some time now Westpac has considered selling its New Zealand banking operations on the heals of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand requiring banks to separate local banking operations and capital from international ones. A prime take over candidate could be HSBC. While “the world’s local bank” is no longer expanding internationally at the…Read More
There is no doubt that commodity prices and overall inflation have soared since the Coronavirus lockdowns in 2020. A combination of base effects, quantitative easing, an exodus from cities and supply chain disruptions have lead to massive year on year changes in CPI. The included image is an overlay of CPI from 2001 to 2014…Read More
The Debt Supercyle Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio along with others have pointed out that there are a lot of similarities between the 1920s and the 1930s and today, both times being the end of a debt supercycle and the fourth turning within the Strass-Howe generational theory. While history doesn’t repeat but rhymes and some of…Read More
We seem to be nearing the end of the current debt supercycle where the marginal return on debt across society (individual, corporate and government) is no longer enough to produce growth, and so some form of deleveraging of the debt has to occur. This can be in the form of inflation or deflation, but either…Read More
The recent acceleration in technological change has brought a lot of talk of universal basic income (UBI) as the future for developed economies. While there are a lot of formal arguments that could be made against this, I thought it better to present a vision for a better world, if robotics and AI really are…Read More