There is no doubt that commodity prices and overall inflation have soared since the Coronavirus lockdowns in 2020. A combination of base effects, quantitative easing, an exodus from cities and supply chain disruptions have lead to massive year on year changes in CPI. The included image is an overlay of CPI from 2001 to 2014…Read More
The Debt Supercyle Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio along with others have pointed out that there are a lot of similarities between the 1920s and the 1930s and today, both times being the end of a debt supercycle and the fourth turning within the Strass-Howe generational theory. While history doesn’t repeat but rhymes and some of…Read More
We seem to be nearing the end of the current debt supercycle where the marginal return on debt across society (individual, corporate and government) is no longer enough to produce growth, and so some form of deleveraging of the debt has to occur. This can be in the form of inflation or deflation, but either…Read More
The recent acceleration in technological change has brought a lot of talk of universal basic income (UBI) as the future for developed economies. While there are a lot of formal arguments that could be made against this, I thought it better to present a vision for a better world, if robotics and AI really are…Read More