Hugh Hendry has often stated that there are “only 5 people in the world who understand money”. Maybe he is just using the number hyperbolically, but here are some of our guests. The first 4 are people that Hugh has mentioned or talked to in various talks, number 5 is a complete guess. 1. Jeff…Read More
We should never have had just 5: Or the MAG 7 including: We should have had more than double the number of well-known tech companies, and they all should have been smaller: This was due to:
In a recent interview between two macro heavyweights, Eric Basmajian and Bob Elliot, Bob was saying that high nominal GDP was positive to the economy, but Eric pointed out that negative real GDP would mean less units sold, even if the price per unit was higher, leading to less employment and a possible negative feedback…Read More
This is an argument that gets thrown around in finance, especially amongst the crypto crowd and places like Real Vision. Here are the reasons you don’t need to keep up with the so-called debasement due to bank reserve expansion:
Or why you should still diversify, and there isn’t only one macro trade. This is less a structured argument than a list of points against what has been recently been put fourth by Roaul Pal’s Everything Code/Exponetial age theses. I’m not saying it can’t happen, I’m just say it’s not a certainty, and may be…Read More
We’re big fans of Michael Howell, and he has been very right with his recent liquidity calls and increasing stock markets, gold and bitcoin prices, so anything written here shouldn’t be viewed as criticism, but checking if there is any confirmation bias on taking on his view. Michael Howell’s liquidity framework is primarily made up…Read More
For a long time financial analysts have been predicting a recession in the U.S. which has seemed to fail to emerge during 2023 and the start of 2024. This fear was due to many indicators, whether the yield curve inverting, leading economic indicators like the ISM, or simply the rapid increase in interest rates on…Read More
There was a recent documentary on this subject on CNBC, but they left out some very key points:
I respect Jim Bianco a lot, and he has been correct on the no landing/soft landing economy, where many macro analysts have been incorrectly bearish. However, in a recent appearance on Real Vision’s Daily Briefing, he made some points about Bitcoin, that seem demonstrably false. I’m not a Bitcoin fan, I believe there are serious…Read More
With the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and attacks on shipping from Houthi rebels garnering the majority of the mainstream press coverage, China’s real estate and debt crisis are possibly not getting the attention it deserves. The recent bankruptcy of Evergrande is evidence of this, and whether overseas creditors get any compensation could further exacerbate…Read More